When the Detroit Tigers signed Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million contract last offseason, the move appeared to serve two purposes. First, it gave Detroit one of the best one-two punches in baseball alongside Tarik Skubal. Second, it provided the organization the flexibility to trade Skubal or, if they lost him in free agency, an ace to replace him. However, through the first half of the 2026 season, Valdez has struggled to fill that role.
Purchase tickets via Ticketmaster
Valdez’s Struggle
Valdez currently owns a 4.40 ERA and a 4.47 FIP. More concerning, his strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low 17.8%, and he is no longer generating the elite ground-ball numbers that made him one of baseball’s most effective pitchers. His ground-ball rate has fallen to 49.2%, a significant decline from the levels he maintained during his peak years with the Houston Astros.
The biggest issue has been the effectiveness of his sinker. Historically, Valdez dominated hitters by keeping the ball at the bottom of the strike zone and inducing weak contact. This season, however, the pitch has consistently stayed higher in the zone, leading to more hard contact and an increase in home runs allowed.
Meanwhile, Skubal continues to set the standard for what an ace looks like when healthy. That reality has made the comparison even more difficult for Valdez. Detroit did not sign him to be Skubal, but the contract suggested the organization believed he could soften the blow if Skubal eventually departed.
Valdez By The Numbers
After last night’s loss, in which he allowed four earned runs on six hits. He walked two and struck out two. He’s shown flashes of the ace he can be at certain points this season. In five of his 14 starts, he’s allowed four or more runs; two of those have been seven or more. If you take out those five starts, Valdez is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts in 53. In three of his last five games, he allowed four or more runs. If the trend continues, his next start on Monday, June 15th, against his former team, he should allow just one run. In his last five starts, he’s 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts in 27.2.
Wrap Up
The Tigers are still hoping Valdez can make the necessary adjustments. The underlying metrics suggest there may be a path forward if he can regain command of his sinker and consistently work the lower part of the strike zone. However, until that happens, Detroit’s investment looks far less secure than it did when the deal was announced.
Valdez still has time to turn things around. But as the season progresses, it is becoming increasingly clear that replacing Tarik Skubal is far easier said than done, and with the Tigers now 6-2 in June, they may hold onto their ace and see if they can right the ship.
