The 2024 Hall of Fame results will be announced by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America on Tuesday, and there are many interesting cases. If I were in the position to have a ballot, this is what mine would look like. All of the stats that are used are from Baseball Reference. One of the stats that may not be well known is JAWS, which is the average of a player’s bWAR and their seven-year peak bWAR.
Bobby Abreu
Accolades: 2x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger
Career Totals (1996-2014): 60.2 bWAR, 50.9 JAWS, .291/.395/.475 .870 OPS 128 OPS+, 2,470 Hits, 288 Home Runs, 1,363 RBI, 1453 Runs, 574 Doubles, 400 Stolen Bases, 1,476 Walks
Bobby Abreu does not get enough love for the career that he put together. Abreu had a seven-year span from 1998 to 2004, where he had over 5.0 bWAR every season. His 50.9 JAWS is higher than that of other Hall of Fame right fielder Vladimir Guerrero. Abreu was one of the most consistent hitters in baseball who did not decline until his late 30s. From 1998 to 2010, he slashed .297/.402/.492 with a .894 OPS and a 132 OPS+. In that same span, he paced 176 hits, 22 home runs, 99 RBI, 107 R, 29 stolen bases, and 105 walks a year. He is also 24th all-time in doubles and 20th all-time in walks. Abreu is one of six players in MLB history to have 200 or more home runs and 400 or more stolen bases in their career.
Carlos Beltran
Accolades: Rookie of the Year, 9x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
Career total (1998-2017): 70.1 bWAR, 57.3 JAWS, .279/.350/.468 .837 OPS, 119 OPS+, 2,725 Hits, 565 Doubles, 435 Home Runs, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 Runs
Carlos Beltrán is an easier sell than Abreu because of the accolades and the overall consensus of his greatness while he played. His 57.3 JAWS comes in just a tick below the average JAWS for a center fielder (58.1), but it is still higher than several Hall of Famers, including Andre Dawson. In a 12-year span from 2001 to 2013, Beltrán slashed .282/.364/.508 with a .871 OPS and 128 OPS+ and paced for 173 hits, 30 home runs, 24 stolen bases, 105 RBI and 107 runs a year. He is also one of 22 players in baseball history to have 2,700 or more hits and 400 or more home runs in their career, with Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Rafael Palmeiro being the only non-Hall of Famers due to their connections to steroid use. Others on that list, like Albert Pujols, are not in the Hall yet but will undoubtedly join once they are eligible. Beltrán was also stellar in the postseason, hitting .307 with a 1.021 OPS and 16 home runs in 65 career postseason games.
Adrián Beltré
Accolades: 4x All-Star, 5x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, 2x Platinum Glove
Career total (1998-2018): 93.5 bWAR, 71.1 JAWS, .286/.339/.480 .819 OPS, 116 OPS+, 3,166 Hits, 636 Doubles, 477 Home Runs, 1,707 RBI, 1,524 R
Adrián Beltré is a slam dunk. According to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame ballot tracker, Beltré currently has a 99% vote with 200 ballots known. And it is really no surprise, given his career numbers and that his 71.1 JAWS is the fourth most by a third baseman in MLB history. Besides a monstrous 2004 season when he racked up 9.6 bWAR with the Dodgers, Beltré’s career did not take off until he got into his 30s. From 2010 to 2017 (age 31-38 seasons) he hit .310/.361/.522 with a .883 OPS and 133 OPS+ and paced for 193 hits, 30 home runs, 105 RBI and 93 runs a year. Beltré’s success in his 30s propelled him to be 11th all-time in doubles (636), 17th all-time in hits (3,166), and 25th all-time in RBI (1,707). He is also one of six players to have 3,100 or more hits, 600 or more doubles, and 450 or more home runs in their careers, with Pujols and Miguel Cabrera being the only ones not in the Hall simply because they are not eligible yet. All of that, paired with stellar defense, puts Beltré in the conversation for one of the best third basemans in baseball history.
Todd Helton
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, 1x Batting Title
Career total (1997-2013): 61.8 bWAR, 54.2 JAWS, .316/.414/.539 .953 OPS, 133 OPS+, 2,519 Hits, 592 Doubles, 369 Home Runs, 1,335 Walks, 1,406 RBI, 1,401 Runs
Todd Helton does not get the respect that he deserves because he played at Coors Field his whole career. Sure, Coors Field is a hitter-friendly ballpark, but Helton was still outstanding on the road, slashing .287/.386/.469 with a .855 OPS in his career. Helton’s 54.2 JAWS is more than the average Hall of Fame first baseman (53.4), and he has two seasons over 8.0 bWAR in his career in 2000 (8.9) and 2004 (8.3). Helton had an impressive 12-year run from 1998 to 2009 when he slashed .329/.429/.568 with a .996 OPS and 141 OPS+ and paced for 192 hits, 46 doubles, 29 home runs, 108 RBI, 110 runs, and 102 walks. I always admire guys who walk more than they strike out, and Helton was one of those guys, having 1,335 walks and 1,175 strikeouts in his career. Helton also had an OPS higher than 1.000 in five straight seasons from 2000 to 2004, leading all of baseball in OPS in 2000 with 1.162.
Andruw Jones
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 10x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, 1x Major League Player of the Year
Career Total (1996-2012): 62.7 bWAR, 54.6 JAWS, .254/.337/.486 .823 OPS, 111 OPS +, 1,933 Hits, 434 Home Runs
Andruw Jones is another player that often gets underrated. Most will look at his offensive numbers and automatically cross him off the Hall of Fame list because there is nothing that really stands out besides the 434 home runs. What people forget is just how good he was defensively. Jones has the most dWAR of any outfielder in MLB history with 24.4 dWAR. Again, most by an outfielder in MLB history. Now, dWAR should not be the be-all and end-all, but it certainly holds value. Just because his defense does the heavy lifting in the Hall of Fame debate, it does not mean he was not a good hitter. Jones had a nine-year span from 1998-2006 when he slashed .270/.347/.513 with a .860 OPS and 119 OPS+ while pacing 164 hits, 36 home runs, 107 RBI, and 102 runs. Jones was a fine power hitter who set an Atlanta Braves single-season record for home runs with 51 in 2005, which stood until Matt Olson broke the record in 2023.
Joe Mauer
Accolades: 1x MVP, 6x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 5x Silver Slugger, 3x Batting Title
Career total (2004-2018): 55.2 bWAR, 47.1 JAWS, .306/.388/.439 .827 OPS, 124 OPS+, 2,133 Hits, 428 doubles, 143 Home Runs
Joe Mauer is arguably the best-hitting catcher of his generation, with Jorge Posada and Buster Posey being his only true competition. He has the most oWAR of all catchers since 2000 with 53.0, and Posey could have made the conversation a lot more interesting if injuries did not keep his career relatively short. The 53.0 oWAR is also suitable for 9th most by a catcher in MLB history, so he is not just good for his era, but he is up there with the greats. Mauer’s 55.2 bWAR is the most by any catcher since 2000 by a whopping 11 bWAR, with Posey being second. His 47.1 JAWS is three higher than the average Hall of Fame catcher. At the plate, Mauer was a hitting machine and had a nine-year span from 2005-2013 when he hit .323/.406/.466 with a .872 OPS and 135 OPS+ and paced for 196 hits, 95 runs, 14 home runs, 88 RBI, 86 walks and 78 strikeouts a year. He brought home three batting titles (2006, 2008, and 2009) and his 2009 MVP when he hit .365/.444/.587 with a 1.031 OPS and 171 OPS+. Mauer was a catcher until 2013 when concussion issues moved him to first base, but he was solid behind the plate, winning three Gold Gloves (2008, 2009, and 2010) and leading the majors in caught stealing percentage twice (2007 and 2013).
Francisco Rodríguez
Accolades: 6x All-Star, 2x Rolaids Reliever of the Year
Career total (2002-2017): 2.86 ERA, 148 ERA+, 437 Saves, 10.5 K/9, 28.5 K%
Francisco Rodríguez was someone who I did not expect to vote for. Relievers are in an interesting position to vote for the Hall of Fame because of how their usage has changed over the years, and their workload is much smaller than starters. Rodríguez is fourth all-time in saves (437) and holds the single-season record in saves with 62 in 2008. He led the MLB in saves twice (2006 and 2008) and led the American League in saves three times (2005, 2006, and 2008). He also received Cy Young votes in 2004, 2006, and 2008 (came in third). Rodríguez is known for his time with the Angels, but he was still very good beyond his Angels years. From 2003 to 2015, he paced a 2.71 ERA, 31 saves, 10.7 K/9, and 29.0 K% a year. Suppose you compare Rodríguez’s career stats to highly regarded Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman. In that case, Rodríguez has a better ERA (2.86 to Hoffman’s 2.87), a higher ERA+ (148 to Hoffman’s 141), more strikeouts despite over 100 fewer innings pitched (1,142 to Hoffman’s 1,133) and a higher K% (28.5% to Hoffman’s 25.8%).
Garry Sheffield
Accolades: 9x All-Star, 5x Silver Slugger, 1x Batting Title, 1x Major League Player of the Year
Career total (1988-2009): 60.5 bWAR, 49.3 JAWS, .292/.393/.514 .907 OPS, 140 OPS+, 2,689 Hits, 467 Doubles, 509 Home Runs, 1,676 RBI, 1,636 Runs, 1,475 Walks
Gary Sheffield has been kept out of the Hall of Fame because of his connections with steroid usage in the steroid era. Still, testing and suspensions for steroid usage were not a thing until 2005, and Sheffield has never tested positive or been suspended. My rule for Hall of Fame voting concerning steroid usage is that steroid-era players should not be punished because steroids were technically not illegal, and players like José Canseco have come out and said that the majority of players in that era were using steroids, so it is an even playing field. Alex Rodriquez did not get a vote from me because he has tested positive and has been suspended multiple times for steroid usage. With the steroid talk out of the way, here is Sheffield’s Hall of Fame resume.
Sheffield was an offensive force, accumulating six seasons with an OPS+ of 160 or higher. From his age 23 to age 38 seasons (1992-2007), Sheffield never had an OPS below .800. In that same span, Sheffield hit .301/.408/.543 with a .951 OPS and 150 OPS+ and paced for 174 hits, 36 home runs, 113 RBI, 109 runs, 100 walks, and only 74 strikeouts. Sheffield only had five seasons where he struck out more than he walked; four were the last four years of his career when he was 37 to 40 years old. He has a 13.5 BB% and a 10.7 K% in his career. Sheffield is also one of nine players in baseball history to have 2,600 or more hits, 500 or more home runs, and 1,400 or more walks, with all of those members being in the Hall of Fame except Barry Bonds.
Chase Utley
Accolades: 6x All-Star, 4x Silver Slugger
Career total (2003-2018): 64.5 bWAR, 56.9 JAWS, .275/.358/.465 .823 OPS, 117 OPS+, 1,885 Hits, 411 Doubles, 259 Home Runs, 1,025 RBI, 1,103 Runs
Chase Utley was a phenomenal player on some talented Philadelphia Phillies teams in the 2000s. Utley had an insane run from 2005 to 2009, putting up 7.3, 7.3, 7.8, 9.0, and 8.2 bWAR seasons in that order. He is 10th all-time in dWAR by a second baseman (17.3), third most dWAR by a second baseman since 2000 (17.3), and has the second most overall bWAR by a second baseman since 2000 (64.5). His 56.9 JAWS is 0.1 lower than the average Hall of Fame second baseman and higher than other known Hall of Famers like Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. From 2005 to 2013, Utley hit .290/.379/.503 with a .882 OPS and 129 OPS+ while pacing for 179 hits, 28 home runs, 100 RBI, and 110 runs a year.
Billy Wagner
Accolades: 7x All-Star, 1x Rolaids Reliever of the Year
Career totals (1995-2010): 2.31 ERA, 422 Saves, 11.9 K/9, 33.2 K%, 0.998 WHIP
Billy Wagner is another fun player to debate for the Hall of Fame because of the reliever position. Wagner was one of the most dominant relievers of his time. He received Cy Young votes twice (1999 and 2006) and is sixth all-time in saves. Wagner was dominant to the end, too, posting a 1.43 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 38.8 K%, 4.73 K/BB, 37 saves, and was an All-Star in his final season at 38 years old. He was no Mariano Rivera, but some of Wagner’s stats are not far off. Wagner had a lower career batting average than Rivera’s (.187 to Rivera’s .211), and his hits per nine innings were a full hit less than Rivera’s (6.0 to Rivera’s 7.0). Wagner’s WHIP is also on par with Rivera’s (0.998 to Rivera’s 1.000). Despite pitching 380.2 fewer innings than Rivera, Wagner has more strikeouts than Rivera in their careers (1,196 to Rivera’s 1,173).
