The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to compete in what should be a very competitive NL Central this season and their Pitching staff will have to be a key factor if they plan to have any chance of competing this year. Many fans are impatiently awaiting the arrival of Paul Skenes, who is the team’s top prospect and should make his debut at some point this season barring any injury while pitching at Triple AAA. So what will the Pirate’s rotation look like? my ideas and predictions are below for each of the guys I believe will be involved in the starting five.
Ace – Mitch Keller
The Pirates locked up Mitch Keller with a five-year 77,000,000 Million dollar extension this offseason. The 27-year-old is coming off his best season to date going 13-9 for the Pirates last season. He saw career highs in Innings pitched and strikeouts last season throwing 194.1 innings and striking out 210 batters. His walks per 9 did come down last season, but he still has room for improvement sitting at 2.5 walks per 9. If Keller can continue to build off last year’s gains in control and perhaps lower his Home runs allowed he could be in line for another big leap forward, which the Pirates desperately need from their ace. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Keller start another 32 games this year going 15-6 with an ERA around 4.00 while striking out 225 batters this season while eclipsing the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career.
Martin Perez
The Pirates signed Veteran Lefty Martin Perez to a one-year deal this offseason to provide veteran leadership for this young group of arms. Perez spent the past two seasons pitching for the Texas Rangers. Last season Perez only started 20 Games for the Rangers and appeared in 35 games total with 15 appearances coming from the bullpen. He finished with a 10-4 record with a 4.45 ERA over 141.2 innings and he struck out 93 batters. The strikeout per 9 was the lowest he’s had in several seasons only getting 5.9 batters per 9 by way of strikeout. Perez if healthy can be a very effective number two for the Pirates this season and if he can get over 28 starts this year I can see him finishing with a 12-7 record throwing 178 innings and striking out 155 batters this season for the Pirates.
Marco Gonzalez
Gonzales was acquired via trade this offseason when he was shipped from the Atlanta Braves to the Pirates, but originally he was traded by the Mariners to the Braves with Jared Kelenic and Evan White. Two days later the Pirates made the trade for Gonzales from Atlanta. The lefty figures to be the number three starter behind Perez and Keller this season for the Pirates. Last season Gonzales only started 10 games and threw 50 innings for the Mariners, the year before he started 32 games and pitched 183 innings. Gonzales is not a power pitcher, but more of a finesse pitcher who will strike out roughly 6-7 batters per 9 innings and walk roughly 2.5 batters per nine innings of work. If the Pirates can get the 2021 version of Gonzales they could expect a 11-8 record over 30 starts and 174 innings of work where he could strike out 105 batters with an ERA of 4.10.
Luis Ortiz
Luis Ortiz is a 25-year-old who has started 19 games for the Pirates over the last two seasons and pitched in 102.2 innings of work. Last season in his 15 starts he went 5-5 with a 4.78 ERA. He appeared in 18 games total throwing 86.2 innings and had 59 strikeouts during that time. I think Ortiz has the 4th starter role locked up to start the season and I can see him making 20+ starts going 6-9 with an ERA similar to last season in the high fours.
Quinn Priester
The 23-year-old is competing this spring for the 5th starter role and last year he made ten appearances and eight starts. Over that time he pitched in 50 innings, going 3-3 with a 7.74 ERA and 36 strikeouts. I think he will see some action this year, but without a very improved spring will most likely start the year in the Minors.
Bailey Falter
Bailey made 10 appearances last year starting 7 games for the Pirates throwing 40.1 innings. He has a record of 2-2 with 32 strikeouts over those innings worked. I think Bailey has the best chance to start the year as the 5th starter for the Pirates out of the gate. This, of course, happens only if top Prospect Paul Skenes doesn’t find a way to break camp with the club, more likely Bailey will hold the spot until Midseason while the Pirates look to control the years of service for the top prospect.
Summary
Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, and Marco Gonzales are all locked in my mind. The fourth starter should be Luis Ortiz while the 5th starter spot most likely will go to Bailey Falter to start the season. I do hope the Pirates allow top overall prospect Paul Skenes to show what he can do in the MLB early in the summer where he should slide into the 3rd or 4th spot just shifting the rest of the rotation down. Overall this rotation isn’t great, but the addition of Skenes at some point during the year would be a big improvement. In the end, the Pirates look more like a bottom-place squad in a tough NL Central division and their staff reflects that as it stands today.
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