The Cincinnati Reds are coming off an 82-80 record in the 2023 season in which they finished third in the National League Central. They had plenty to be excited about during parts of the season with the arrival of top Prospect Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. The team is looking to carry that excitement into the 2024 campaign where the team is hoping to challenge for the Division title and then make some noise during the Postseason. The Team bolstered its Pitching staff with the free agent acquisitions of Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas this off-season and signed veteran corner infielder Jeimer Candelario as well. Below are my three bold predictions for this year’s team.
The top Sophomore Performer won’t be Elly De La Cruz
Matt McLain is going to be the best performer of the youngsters in their sophomore campaign offensively this season. McLain played in 82 games last year after being called up from triple AAA. He had 365 ABs, scored 65 runs, had 23 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs, 50 RBIs, 31 walks, and stole 14 bases. During the 82 games, he slashed .290/.357/.507 with an OBP of .864 last year. De La Cruz is the big name that everyone is high on, but for me, a guy who can’t hit above .240 for an average will have less positive impact on a team than a guy who can hit close to .300 with power. De La Cruz, Will Benson, and Christian Encarnacion Strand will all play a big part in this offense for the Reds, but it will be Matt McLain who has the best season of the four and should have a bigger impact than the others mentioned given his all-around offensive impact on the game. My Bold prediction is McLain is to play in 150 games, with 35 doubles, seven triples, 28 home runs, 87 RBIs, score 100 runs, walk 58 times, and steal 30 bags this coming season while hitting between .288 and .294
Bullpen Improvements
Alexis Diaz had a good year last year for the Reds recording saves for a team that ranked 1st overall last year with 53. Along with those saves the time does have room for improvement, they had 79 Save Opportunities last year meaning they blew 26 save opportunities last year. Mind you, not all those ended in losses, but still, that is a high amount of opportunities. They were 3rd overall in opportunities and first in saves closing it out wasn’t the negative for the Pen. The negative was the ERA of 4.11 for the Bullpen last year and a WHIP of 1.35. The fact is the team was in trouble as soon as the starters left the game, not that the starters faired much better with their eras for the year. The Bullpen just couldn’t miss many bats and allowed way too many hits last season. This year the team brought back Buck Farmer but other than that, no real help for the bullpen directly. Not one of the projected bullpen arms had an ERA under 4.00 last year. My bold Prediction for this Bullpen is Nick Martinez will join this group in Mid-late May as a middle reliever when either Brandon Williamson or Andrew Abbott returns to the big league rotation. After Martinez is included in the fold the team will swing a trade in Mid June for the top bullpen arm not a closer to help this bullpen which will go from an over-four ERA of 4.00 in the first two full months of the season to an ERA below 3.70, which will lead this team to a their first title in years.
Three-Headed Monster in the Rotation
I think Hunter Greene, Frankie Montas, and a healthy Nick Lodolo provide the Reds with a very formidable top three in a rotation that should also include Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, and for a bit Nick Martinez. I have a strong gut feeling that Frankie Montas is going to push Hunter Greene to his best season yet and I think Nick Lodolo once back to full strength is going to get caught up in their momentum heading for a terrific season. My Bold Prediction These three Reds starting pitchers combined for 46 wins alone this year. Greene with 16, Montas with 16, and Lodolo 14 wins this season while each is above 165 strikeouts for the year.
Summary
Matt McLain will have a stellar offensive season and will be the team’s offensive MVP this year. Lodolo, Montas, and Greene will all have terrific seasons leading this rotation while each has a season to remember. The toughest Bold prediction was the Bullpen, but I had to go out on a limb and think that the team will see the value of Martinez being in the bullpen with his strong WHIP and ERA numbers in his career trying to stabilize a unit that was a disaster besides Diaz last season. I think they see what they have in Abbott and bring him up and toss Martinez into a middle reliever/setup role, then attack the trade market early by grabbing another top reliever before the trade deadline even heats up. This will make this team dangerous down the stretch. I think as a team the Reds will challenge the Cubs down to the wire in the NL Central and the division title will come down to who added the best pieces to their bullpens down the stretch.
