Last season the St. Louis Cardinals ended the year twenty games below .500 with a 71-91 record bad enough to finish dead last in the National League Central. Last year was a definite disappointment to the team and the fan base. The pitching last season was subpar and was the focus in the offseason. The Team added Free Agent starters Sonny Gray, and Kyle Gibson, and brought back Lance Lynn to join Mike Mikolas and Steve Matz. The team also sent often-injured Tyler O’Neil to the Red Sox, but other than that the starting 9 should look similar except for shortstop where Masyn Winn looks to control the spot, with veteran Brandon Crawford recently added to the mix. Below are the three keys to the Cardinals returning to the playoffs this coming season.
Youth Movement:
Jordan Walker the 22-year-old right fielder has been one of the Cardinal’s top prospects for a few years and had last season as his real first taste of MLB pitching. For the Cardinals to return to postseason play they are going to need a bigger offensive contribution from Walker this coming season. It’s projected that the Cardinals will hit Jordan Walker 7th this season behind Nolan Gorman and Willson Contreras. I would like to see Walker take the next step forward push his Average up and cut back a hair on the strikeouts, but his ability to drive people in will be determined by those folks hitting in front of him which hopefully can rebound and do a better job this season. For the Cardinals to rebound which I think they will you should expect to see something similar to this for Walkers put up next season 522 Plate Appearances, 69 runs, 25 doubles, three triples, 26 home runs, 80 RBIs, and an average of .274 this coming season.
Lars Nootbaar
Nootbaar has appeared in over 100 games the last two seasons for the Cardinals, with O’Neil out of the picture I expect we see more playing time for the kid this coming year. Last season we saw his average jump by .033 points landing at a .261 average last season and scoring 74 runs. As of right now, Nootbar is slated to hit in the three-hole behind Brendan Donovan and Paul Goldschmidt. I am honestly expecting a bigger year from Nootbaar than I am Walker offensively and they will need his production if they plan to bounce back this year in a big way. I expect Nootbaar to see 565 plate appearances, have 30 doubles, three triples, 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, steal 17 bases, and hit .272 this coming season.
Sonny Gray
I believe last year’s debacle from the starting rotation will be rectified this coming season. I think Mike Mikolas will have a nice bounce-back year, I think Lance Lynn will even bounce back and be more of his old self. I will note that from what it looks like from a few photos I have seen from spring training camp Lynn has come to camp in really good shape. So maybe this year we will see a more refined Lance Lynn. If Kyle Gibson can pitch like he has the last two seasons then that is an improvement over what the Cardinals received last year as well. The biggest reason for hope and this bounce-back season will land on their new Ace Sonny Gray. I believe in Gray and many others aren’t buying in, but I believe Gray will win over 15 games this coming season for the Red Birds. Gray last season had an ERA of under 3 and went 8-8 with the Twins, if he can get any kind of run support and support from the bullpen Gray can easily go 17-6 this season and still have an ERA in the low 3’s which past two seasons he has accomplished in Minnesota. I think this year we see Gray start 32 games, go 17-6, strike out 195 batters, and finish with an ERA of 3.15 he will be in the top five for CY Young votes as well, that is my projection. If this happens the Cardinals might just win the NL Central and at the very least take a Wild Card and get back into the postseason
Bullpen
Last season between Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos the team saved 36 games, but as a whole, the bullpen was ranked 8th worst in the entire major leagues last season with a 4.47 ERA. They had the 7th worst WHIP 1.40 season as well. The worst though was their bullpen just couldn’t get anyone to strike out which they landed 3rd worst in the majors last season with only 562 as a team from the pen. With the improved starting rotation hopefully eating more innings each game perhaps the pen will be less overworked and guys can miss some bats this year. A healthy Ryan Helsely is a must for this Bullpen to hold its shape this season. Anything I mentioned above means nothing if the group below cannot be an asset for this club going into this season. I think we get a healthy (ish) Helsley this season and we see him save 30 games this year and I see the Cardinals Bullpen bouncing back significantly this year after a disastrous season as a group last year. If the Bullpen bounces back and can lock down the back half of games this team has the talent and veteran leadership to cause so problems in the NL Central and do well in the Playoffs.
Summary
When it is all said in done I expect the Cardinals to finish 2nd in the Central behind the Cubs and right above the Reds with an 89-73 record taking one of the Wild Card spots. If the team is aggressive at the deadline and makes moves that help the Pen and potentially adds another starter in case Lynn or Matz do not shake out then this team could push the Cubs for the division. I think this Veteran group with just enough talented youth mixed in is poised for a big season and will shock some people this year who have their eyes focused on the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds. This season is going to be fun and the National League Central might just be one of the toughest and tightest races when it’s all said and done.
