The Boston Red Sox over the last two seasons have finished in last place, in 2022 they finished 78-84 and in 2023 they finished with the same record. Entering this season, they have added Vaughn Grissom, Lucas Giolito, Tyler O’Neill, and Justin Slaten, they’ll also have Liam Hendriks back in their bullpen sometime around the trade deadline. They lost Chris Sale, John Schreiber, James Paxton, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo, Luis Urias, and potentially Adam Duvall. The one thing they are still looking to add is starting pitching, the one name a lot of fans and even players current as well as former want is Jordan Montgomery so how can Jordan Montgomery make the Red Sox after all the subtractions to the rotation and lineup all of a sudden, a playoff team? Well, there are two ways this team could be a playoff team without him one of those involves a lot of question marks and those will get broken down first but there are also two things that the addition of Montgomery changes the Red Sox entire landscape. Let’s look into why they could be a better team this season even without Montgomery.
Without Montgomery
Defense
Last season the Red Sox finished in 28th in fielding percentage with a .982 which was tied with the A’s and beat just the San Francisco Giants. They finished tied for the second most errors with 102 with the Oakland A’s also finishing behind the Giants. Rafael Devers led the team with 19 and right behind him was Kike Hernandez who wasn’t even with the Red Sox all season he had 18 with 15 of those coming with his time in Boston and 14 of which when he was at shortstop. One of the best defenders on the team last year is no longer here in Alex Verdugo who led the team with nine defensive runs saved above average. So with all those issues how can this team be better defensively?
The addition of Ceddanne Rafaela to center field is a start Alex Cora said assuming he has a good spring he will be the starting center fielder for this team come opening day he may end up being a defender out there who can be compared to Jackie Bradley Jr., with a better bat at the plate. With Rafaela in center that then puts Jarren Duran who was much better in left field than he was in center field last year. Add into that Masataka Yoshida will now be the designated hitter for this team so you take his issues with the Green Monster out of the equation. In the infield, you have Trevor Story back, and he seems fully healthy so you’re sticking an actual shortstop at shortstop. Add in Vaughn Grissom who is now the starting second baseman and has a .974 fielding percentage at second base in 44 games. The main question mark is Rafael Devers, but his issues are physiological if he makes a bad play hopefully Story can be the leader he seems to have taken the role as and help get Devers back on track so it doesn’t become a trickle-down effect as it has in recent years, if all that is the case then this team could be 3-5 wins better than last season.
Progressions
This is the one with all the question marks. The lineup if you look at how they played last season and when healthy could be a tough lineup to beat but now you need to ask. Can Jarren Duran take an extra step forward from last year, can Triston Casas be the hitter we all see him growing into in his second season, can Trevor Story return to his old form and hit 25-35 home runs and drive in 80 runs, can Masataka Yoshida continue what he did early on for a full season, can Tyler O’Neill be healthy which if he’s splitting time with Wilyer Abreu may not be that much of an issue, can Vaughn Grissom turn into a power bat, can Ceddanne Rafaela limit his strikeouts, can Brayan Bello take a step forward and inch closer to that ace form we all see coming with the comparisons to Pedro Martinez, can Lucas Gioltio be healthy and pitch to his old form, can Nick Pivetta return the success he had as a starter from last season after being moved to the bullpen. That’s 10 question marks entering the season really if five of those question marks come true this team will be much better than they are expected to be, and I can see five if not more coming to fruition. All of that is coming without Jordan Montgomery being in a Red Sox uniform so let’s see what he changes for this team.
With Montgomery
Rotation
Sliding Jordan Montgomery into the rotation he may not be ready to go on opening day since he hasn’t signed yet but the addition of him gives you a pitcher who has thrown over 150 innings four times in his seven-year career and one of those three seasons he didn’t was the shortened 60 game season and that year he made ten starts going 44 innings. Giolito has thrown over 150 innings five times in his eight seasons. The rest of the expected rotation with Montgomery added would be Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, and Kutter Crawford. Bello threw over 150 innings last season, and Pivetta has done it three times in his career, he came close last season finishing with 142.2 innings, and Crawford last season was his first real chance as a starter, and he looked good. With Montgomery, it makes the Red Sox rotation a lot better and provides them depth in their bullpen as well as makes the bullpen a lot better. Adding Montgomery could also improve this team to roughly 86 wins compared to where they are expected to be right now, and 86 wins may just be enough to get you into playoffs.
Bullpen
Adding Montgomery to the rotation will change your bullpen drastically. The Red Sox bullpen right now is very good and one of the strengths of this team as it is with Brennan Bernadino, Garrett Whitlock, Josh Winckowski, Chris Martin, and Kenley Jansen. Now if Montgomery is in the rotation that will move Tanner Houck to the bullpen and would make it much better and with more arm depth. Adding Montgomery may make it even more possible that Jansen is traded either after he’s signed or by the trade deadline which then brings Liam Hendriks into the equation, he comes back at the deadline so is that the plan to keep him until Hendriks comes back and you have another closer ready to role. In the end, Montgomery whether they trade Kenley or not will also make the Red Sox bullpen much better.
The Division
The American League East just might be the best division in baseball and making the playoffs from that division is not the easiest but with fewer games against them compared to recent seasons aside from last year is beneficial. The expectation is the Yankees and Orioles will be at the top with the Yankees having acquired some talent to give them a jump from last season now having Juan Soto, Verdugo, and Marcus Stroman. While the Orioles after winning the division last year got significantly better now adding top prospect Jackson Holliday who is expected to make the team come opening day and adding a certified ace in Corbin Burnes to their rotation, they will be hard to beat. The other two teams the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays have question marks just like the Red Sox, the Rays lineup can hit, and although they always seem to produce pitching this year’s staff without Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen seems different not like the same team in years past and can be a beatable team. The Blue Jays have similar issues while having a solid 1-4 in the lineup of George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr, and Justin Turner, there are questions about the bottom half as well as the pitching, Kevin Gausman is expected to be a Cy Young candidate but what will Jose Berrios do or Yusei Kikuchi, and what’s going on with Alek Manoah a once-promising ace has fallen off. With those teams being in question enter the Red Sox into the conversation with Montgomery of potentially finishing in third in the division which could ultimately open up a wild card spot and a chance at postseason baseball.
Bottom Line: Get The Deal Done
Jordan Montgomery wants to be a Boston Red Sox and he’s made that known, his wife is doing her clinical here and he’s worked out all offseason now, and with Spring Training having started he’s now down in Florida working out, so he’s right there advertising himself to this team that needs a starting pitcher for not just this season but for when ownership really wants to go all in. Adding him could give you a chance to really make some noise this season and really have something solid going for when the rest of the three prospects in Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer, and Roman Anthony get here. I’d send out a three-year $75 million offer with a fourth-year mutual option and let’s get this done and let’s be excited for Red Sox baseball in 2024.
