The 2024 regular season has 33 days left; come Sunday, it will be in the final month with teams trying to make a final push. The other push will come from some of these players looking to help their team make the postseason in their first season in the big leagues. The American League Rookie of the Year award is wide open with the list including eight players who have a real shot to solidify the award with a hot September, the eight names are Colton Cowser from the Baltimore Orioles, Mason Miller from the Oakland A’s, Colt Keith from the Detroit Tigers, Wyatt Langford from the Texas Rangers, two New York Yankees in Luis Gil and Austin Wells, and two Boston Red Sox in Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela, so who has the best chance to take home the award.
The Rookies
(Stats based on American League Qualified Rookies Rankings)
OF – Colton Cowser – Baltimore Orioles
Cowser was drafted in the first round of the 2021 MLB Draft fifth overall by the Orioles. He got a taste of the big leagues last season playing in 26 games hitting .115 with a .433 OPS; he had two doubles, four RBI, 15 runs scored, one stolen base, and 13 walks. This season in 125 games he’s hitting .247 with a .770 OPS; he has 19 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs, 57 RBI, 62 runs scored, eight stolen bases, and 40 walks.
AVG: .247 (9th)
OPS: .770 (4th)
2B: 19 (3rd)
HR: 19 (1st)
RBI: 57 (2nd)
R: 67 (2nd)
RHP – Mason Miller – Oakland A’s
Miller was drafted in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft by the A’s. Last season he appeared in ten games with six of those coming as starts going 0-3 with a 3.78 ERA, a 3.47 FIP, a 1.20 WHIP, a 4.3 BB/9, and a 10.3 K/9 in 33.1 innings. This season in 43 appearances he is 1-1 with 22 saves, a 1.70 FIP, a 0.82 WHIP, a 3.0 BB/9, and a 14.8 K/9 in 51 innings.
ERA: 3.78 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.82 (1st)
K: 84 (5th)
IP: 51
INF – Colt Keith – Detroit Tigers
Keith was drafted in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB Draft. He made his debut this season after a lot of hype following the 2023 season in the minor leagues. This season in 121 games he’s hitting. 264 with a .709 OPS; he has 14 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs, 52 RBI, 48 runs scored, seven stolen bases, and 30 walks.
AVG: .264 (2nd)
OPS: .709 (6th)
2B: 14 (8th)
HR: 12 (4th)
RBI: 52 (3rd)
R: 48 (6th)
OF – Wyatt Langford – Texas Rangers
Langford was drafted fourth overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. He made his debut this season wasting no time following being drafted, in 104 games he’s hitting .245 with a .681 OPS; he has 18 doubles, four triples, seven home runs, 50 RBI, 47 runs scored, 12 stolen bases, and 38 walks.
AVG: .245 (10th)
OPS: .681 (10th)
2B: 18 (4th)
HR: 7 (10th)
RBI: 50 (5th)
R: 47 (8th)
RHP – Luis Gil – New York Yankees
Gil signed as an international free agent. He made his debut in 2021 making six starts going 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA, a 4.40 FIP, a 1.33 WHIP, a 1.2 BB/9, and a 5.8 K/9 in 29.1 innings. In 2022 he made one start going four innings giving up four runs on five hits; he walked two and struck out five. This season in 24 starts he is 12-6 with a 3.39 ERA, a 3.87 FIP, a 1.20 WHIP, a 4.8 BB/9, and a 10.4 K/9 in 124.2 innings.
ERA: 3.39 (1st)
WHIP: 1.20 (3rd)
K: 144 (1st)
IP: 124.2 (1st)
C – Austin Wells – New York Yankees
Wells was drafted 28th overall by the Yankees in the 2020 MLB Draft. Last season in 19 games he hit .229 with a .742 OPS; he had six doubles, four home runs, 13 RBI, eight runs scored, and three walks. This season in 91 games he’s hitting .256 with a .773 OPS; he has 14 doubles, one triple, ten home runs, 38 RBI, 33 runs scored, one stolen base, and 39 walks.
AVG: .256 (5th)
OPS: .773 (3rd)
2B: 14 (8th)
HR: 10 (6th)
RBI: 38 (7th)
R: 33 (13th)
OF – Wilyer Abreu – Boston Red Sox
Abreu originally signed as an international free agent with the Houston Astros but was acquired by the Red Sox in a trade for Christian Vazquez. In his first taste of the big leagues in 2023 he played in 28 games hitting .316 with a .862 OPS; he had six doubles, two home runs, 14 RBI, ten runs scored, three stolen bases, and nine walks. This season in 104 games he’s hitting .269 with a .838 OPS; he has 28 doubles, two triples, 14 home runs, 51 RBI, 53 runs scored, seven stolen bases, and 34 walks.
AVG: .269 (1st)
OPS: .838 (1st)
2B: 28 (1st)
HR: 14 (2nd)
RBI: 51 (4th)
R: 53 (4th)
CF/SS – Ceddanne Rafaela – Boston Red Sox
Rafaela was signed by the Red Sox as an international free agent. He got his first taste of the big leagues last season playing in 28 games hitting .241 with a .666 OPS; he had six doubles, two home runs, five RBI, 11 runs scored, three stolen bases, and four walks. This season in 129 games he’s hitting .259 with a .693 OPS; he has 20 doubles, four triples, 13 home runs, 61 RBI, 64 runs scored, 17 stolen bases, and 15 walks.
AVG: .259 (4th)
OPS: .693 (8th)
2B: 20 (2nd)
HR: 13 (3rd)
RBI: 61 (1st)
R: 64 (1st)
Wrap Up
Right now the favorite is Cowser followed by Wells but my pick is leaning towards Keith or Rafaela. Rafaela is a key reason why the Red Sox are still in the postseason race as is Keith towards the Tigers but Rafaela aside from his offensive production plays gold glove defense night in and night out at two very difficult positions with center field and shortstop, the one thing is he can start a game in center field then come in to play shortstop late if needed and vice versa and still delivers gold glove caliber defense the whole time, the one thing hurting Rafaela is his teammate in Abreu which is why they are both tied in odds to win the award. Keith on the other hand has become a key cog in the Tigers lineup and is a big reason why they are only 5.5 games out of a playoff spot right now. Those two need to be looked at more as favorites to win the award in 2024.
