With just over a month left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, there are considerable questions surrounding the Yankees’ pitching rotation. Every pitcher not named Gerrit Cole has a lot to prove this year if the Yankees are to reclaim a position atop the American League East. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes Jr. had disappointing campaigns marred by injuries, so both will be looking to show why they belong in New York. It isn’t entirely clear who the number-four and number-five pitchers will be at this juncture, but with their current roster, all signs point to Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren. Both are less-than-ideal options for a team looking for a return to dominance.
Other Options
Two names have been linked with the Yankees since Yoshinobu Yamamoto came off the board: National League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and former Yankee Jordan Montgomery. Either one of these pitchers would upgrade the rotation, but Snell is the most probable target. Aside from the considerable salary he will command, what makes Blake Snell a risky addition?
Risky Business
Blake Snell collected the National League Cy Young Award this winter, making it the second of his career. He finished the season with a 2.25 ERA, the best in the league, and a career-high 234 strikeouts. With those numbers, it’s curious that the 31-year-old lefty remains without a contract. Speculation is varied, but there are facts that any team considering Snell’s services would be wise to consider. Since entering the league, injuries have plagued Snell’s career; he’s had hip, shoulder, ankle, and elbow problems at various points, limiting his effectiveness and durability. Additionally, he’s never gone more than 180 innings in a season, and he’s only done that twice. For a pitcher who will likely want more than $20 million in annual value, any team that signs Snell will need an inning count closer to 200.
Last season, Blake Snell issued more free passes than any other pitcher in the league with 99. He also had the lowest ERA, a feat that has never happened in the history of Major League Baseball. Conventional wisdom would say that Snell has control issues or his arm gets fatigued, but neither is true. A glance at his league-leading pitching run value, breaking run value, and off-speed run value will tell a more complete story than just his walk rate. In other words, Snell walks a lot of batters, but he’s also very good at stranding runners. According to Snell, the majority of his walks are done on purpose. Not intentional walks, but rather, he’s pitching around a batter when he’s too far behind in the count, situation permitting. Combined with a 31.5 percent strikeout rate, it’s no secret why Snell rarely makes it past the 7th inning.
“It’s so hard to go seven, eight, nine, because I will have an inning of 25 or 26 pitches,” Snell said. “It’s gonna happen. … I don’t care about that. What is seven compared to six? As long as I outlast their starter, that’s all I care about.”
Kevin Acee/San Diego Union Tribune
A concern frequently echoed is Snell’s ground ball and fly ball rate. Specifically, he doesn’t produce enough ground balls, and his fly ball rate is too high. This is a potentially problematic statistic when pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark like Yankee Stadium. While he produces both at an average rate, Snell produced more ground balls, fewer fly balls, and fewer home runs than his AL CY Young-winning counterpart; granted, he did this while throwing 29 fewer innings. In Snell’s four-pitch repertoire, his fastball produces the most flyballs, but he throws that pitch nearly 49 percent of the time—almost always low and in the zone. It’s also worth noting that Snell doesn’t produce a lot of hard-hit balls, and when he does, it’s typically a groundball.
Could Be The Move
The value Blake Snell can bring to a team largely depends on how well that team’s bullpen is constructed. He regularly throws over 100 pitches in any given outing, often faster than managers would prefer, so having relievers capable of tossing multiple innings could alleviate an early exit. However, not all teams are prepared for such scenarios. There are a lot of upsides to having Blake Snell in the rotation. He could be the missing piece the Yankees have long sought or yet another albatross of a contract. Handled strategically, pairing Gerrit Cole with Blake Snell could create the most formidable pitching duo in baseball.
