The 2023 season was a disappointing one for the Guardians as they finished third in the division and 11 games back from .500 with a 76-86 record. They enter 2024 hoping to bounce back and compete in the Central Division with the up-and-coming Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and the Division-winning Minnesota Twins. The success of this Cleveland Guardians team will hinge on how well the rotation does this year for the team. They have talent, but let’s dive in and take a look at the options for the Guardians to fill out their starting five.
Locks:
SP – Shane Bieber
Bieber is heading into the age 29 season and is coming off a season where he only made 21 starts with 128 innings pitched and a record of 6-6 on the year. Bieber struck out 107 batters last season, walked 34, and gave up 14 home runs, with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.23 through his 128 innings pitched. Last season Bieber relied on 5 different pitches a Four-seam fastball, Cutter, Slider, Knuckle curve and Change up. Bieber heads into this season as the team’s number one and hopefully, they get more of the 2022 Bieber than the injury-riddled Bieber they’ve seen in 2020 and 2023 most recently. So far this springBieber has started four games throwing 13.1 innings with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Bieber has struck out 16 batters while walking seven so far in Cactus League play. Projected stats: 31 games started, 176 Innings, 11 wins, 177 K’s, 3.89 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.25.
SP – Tristan McKenzie
McKenzie was limited to four starts last season due to multiple injuries but headed into the season with a lot of discussion of a breakout season coming. In 2022 he started 30 games, went 11-11, struck out 190, in 191.1 innings worked. Also in 2022, he had a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 on the year. McKenzie relies heavily on his four-seam fastball but has a slider and curveball he throws as well. He has entered camp this year healthy and has looked good this spring in three starts, 8.2 innings, nine K’s, one walk, an ERA of 3.12, and a WHIP of 1.15 on the spring. 2024 Prediction: 26 games started, 158 innings, nine wins, 160 K’s, 4.12 ERA and a WHIP of 1.26.
SP – Tanner Bibee
Bibee was excellent in his first season up with the Guardians last year starting 25 games, going 10-4, 142 Innings, 142 strikeouts, 2.98 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP last season. He used a four-pitch mix four-seam fastball 47.1 percent of the time, a Slider 27%, a Changeup 16.6%, and a Curveball 9.3% during his 25 starts last year. So far this spring the 25-year-old has started 3 games, throwing 7.2 innings, with an ERA of 8.22 and a 1.70 WHIP. Also during his limited innings work he has struck out 8 batters while walking three batters. 2024 Predictions: 28 games started, 161 Innings, 10 wins, 152 K’s, 3.92 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.19 on the year.
SP – Logan Allen
Allen is a 25-year-old southpaw who made his MLB debut last year for the Guardians with an extended look throughout the season. Last year Allen made 24 starts, 125.1 innings, went 7-8, 119 K’s, an ERA of 3.81, and a 1.40 WHIP during those 24 starts. Allen used a five-pitch arsenal last season Four-seam fastball 45.1%, a Sweeper 22%, a changeup 21.2%, a Cutter 8.7%, and a slider at 3% during his 24 starts last year. So far this spring Allen has made three starts, 8.1 innings pitched, six strikeouts, six walks, an ERA of 2.16, and a 1.20 WHIP this spring. 2024 Predictions: 26 games started, 146 innings, eight wins, 133 K’s, 4.46 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.33 on the year.
SP – Gavin Williams
Williams is a 24-year-old right-hand pitcher who started 16 games for the Guardians last season. He went 3-5, over 82 innings, and struck out 81 hitters, with an ERA of 3.29 and a 1.26 WHIP over his starts. Williams has a four-pitch arsenal that he utilized during the 2023 season. He used a four-seam fastball 55.3%, a slider 22.1%, a Curveball 17%, and a changeup 5.6% of the time during his 16 starts last season. So far this spring Williams has made two starts, 4.2 innings, nine strikeouts, one walk, a 1.93 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP during his time this spring. Williams is dealing with some right elbow soreness and has been limited, but the team pitching coach Carl Willis still calls him day-to-day but does say they are being cautious with him knowing they want him to be 100% when hitting the mound again. The team does believe his return will be soon and he will be ready early into the season if not the start. 2024 Prediction: 24 games started, 129 innings, seven wins, 127 K’s, 3.93 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.26 on the year.
Summary
The pitching staff for the most part is young and has plenty of potential. Bibee, Allen, and Williams all had years the team hopes they can build off of in 2023. The concern will be health, if the team can keep these arms healthy this year they will have a chance to stay competitive throughout the season in the American League Central Division. The team has Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry to spot start and add depth to the rotation in case one or two of these starters need to miss time this season. Bieber, McKenzie, and Bibee, if healthy, can be a formidable top three this rotation. This team if healthy can surprise some folks in a division that appears to be wide open this year.
